How long do people survive after contracting the Ebola virus?

Here are some graphics to help. The first is relative to life expectancy when the virus is deadly. As you can see – it’s *very* fast moving (generally).

It can take 21 days to experience first symptoms from exposure – so the total elapsed time is roughly 1 month.

Keep in mind, though, not everyone dies. The mortality rate in West Africa with this strain, however, is the highest ever seen for Ebola (about 70% – 80%).

The second graph is relative to its ‘R’ factor.

The good news here is that it doesn’t have a very high R factor (2) – BUT – unlike some of the other infectious diseases – it is VERY fast moving. That’s part of what’s causing the exponential transmission.

Here’s how that looks today – October 6, 2014:

There are two more problems with this outbreak.
The rates of infection and death have been – by any measure – seriously under-reported. Conditions in the field are extremely difficult for getting to any real accuracy. All we can say is that the numbers we do have are under-counted. The question we can’t answer is by how much.
There is no vaccine. The *trial* vaccine used in about 7 cases (called ZMapp) is gone – and it will take months (12-18) to produce any in significant quantity. The population of the 3 countries most affected – Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone – is roughly 22 million. As it is – ZMapp was used in 7 cases – and 2 people taking ZMapp died – so its efficacy is still largely unknown – especially at any scale.