How serious is the 2019–20 Coronavirus?

0
Mudassir Ali
Mar 03, 2020 05:16 PM 0 Answers
Member Since Dec 2019
Subscribed Subscribe Not subscribe
Flag(0)
Mudassir Ali
- Mar 03, 2020 05:16 PM

COVID-19 is very infectious (Each person infects 1.4–6.77 others), but rarely fatal (0.6–2.5%).

19% of China cases in severe/critical condition (16%) or dead (2.6%)
5% of non-China cases in severe/critical condition (4.0%) or dead (0.6%)

Maybe most infected people show no symptoms (possibly 10–70%).
Non-China: 4% detected while showing no symptoms (16/447).
Cruiseship: 70% detected show no symptoms.

Kill more men (64%) than women (36%), and people with high blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease.

People under 50 have little danger of dying (<1%).
Children may have light/no symptoms (as with SARS & MERS).

Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China 2/11/20:
Age
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%

Effects of COVID-19 are similar to OC43 (one of four other mild coronaviruses probably responsible for 1/4 of all “common colds”, 15% severe, 0.2% death).

China: 1,870 (2.6%) dead, 12,682 (17%) recovered, 11,741 (16%) severe/critical, 72,530 confirmed, 6.242 suspected, 141,552 under observation

Outside China: 5 (0.6%) dead, 158 (18%) recovered, 36 (4.0%) severe/critical, 897 cases
- Tue 2/18 1:04 pm Beijing Time (Mon 9:04 pm PT)

Mudassir Ali
- Mar 03, 2020 05:16 PM

Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China 2/11/20:
First reports I’ve read about deaths of teens (1) and 20s (7).

Overall 2.3% (1,023/44,672)
Male 2.8% (64%, 653)
Female 1.7% (36%, 370)

Age
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 .4%
30-39 .24% (18/7,600)
20-29 .19% (7/3,619)
10-19 .02% (1/549)
0-9 0 (0/416)

Reply on This
Replying as Submit
0 Subscribers
Submit Answer
Please login to submit answer.
0 Answers