Answers ( 2 )

  1. Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China 2/11/20:
    First reports I’ve read about deaths of teens (1) and 20s (7).

    Overall 2.3% (1,023/44,672)
    Male 2.8% (64%, 653)
    Female 1.7% (36%, 370)

    Age
    80+ 14.8%
    70-79 8.0%
    60-69 3.6%
    50-59 1.3%
    40-49 .4%
    30-39 .24% (18/7,600)
    20-29 .19% (7/3,619)
    10-19 .02% (1/549)
    0-9 0 (0/416)

  2. COVID-19 is very infectious (Each person infects 1.4–6.77 others), but rarely fatal (0.6–2.5%).

    19% of China cases in severe/critical condition (16%) or dead (2.6%)
    5% of non-China cases in severe/critical condition (4.0%) or dead (0.6%)

    Maybe most infected people show no symptoms (possibly 10–70%).
    Non-China: 4% detected while showing no symptoms (16/447).
    Cruiseship: 70% detected show no symptoms.

    Kill more men (64%) than women (36%), and people with high blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease.

    People under 50 have little danger of dying (<1%).
    Children may have light/no symptoms (as with SARS & MERS).

    Case-Fatality Rates (CFR) China 2/11/20:
    Age
    80+ 14.8%
    70-79 8.0%
    60-69 3.6%
    50-59 1.3%

    Effects of COVID-19 are similar to OC43 (one of four other mild coronaviruses probably responsible for 1/4 of all “common colds”, 15% severe, 0.2% death).

    China: 1,870 (2.6%) dead, 12,682 (17%) recovered, 11,741 (16%) severe/critical, 72,530 confirmed, 6.242 suspected, 141,552 under observation

    Outside China: 5 (0.6%) dead, 158 (18%) recovered, 36 (4.0%) severe/critical, 897 cases
    - Tue 2/18 1:04 pm Beijing Time (Mon 9:04 pm PT)

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