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Originally Answered: How soon do you predict a US-based death from the Corona virus?
Let’s look at China’s experience. They began treating the virus by denying it existed. Then they concealed and dishonestly reduced all stats on infection and deaths. Still let’s use the numbers they have let out. So far as of 2/8/2020 about 100 days after the outbreak seems to have begun, there have been about 900 deaths out of 30,000 infected, (Thi sis what they admit—real numbers could be ten times that many.) Still that works out to 1 death for every 333 infected. As of noon PST today there were 12 known cses in the USA. And that with 2 full months of unrestricted travel all over the world. So there has been plenty of time for a pandemic to start, and it has not. Death are random events to a certain extent. One of out 333 sounds pretty easy to live with, but in random events the death could be on infection number 332 or it could be on infection number 13. Therefore, it would be a great idea to wash your hands frequently, avoid people who come to work or school sick or are coughing. Also good ideas: get the flu vaccine, look both ways when crossing the street, avoid opiates, do not abuse alcohol, open the bolt on your firearm and look to confirm that the chamber is empty-then set the safety. OH, do not smoke.
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