Is the Coronavirus more serious than we know?

Mudassir Ali
Mar 03, 2020 05:20 PM 0 Answers
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Mudassir Ali
- Mar 03, 2020 05:20 PM

Much of the pessimism surrounding the virus focuses on the Chinese under-counting the number of infected to save face. However, it’s important to note that a shortage of specialized test kits has caused health officials in many countries to rely on observable symptoms for diagnoses, and because coronavirus mimics the flu and pneumonia in its early stages, it’s also possible that authorities may be over-counting as well.

Instead of looking at it from a total confirmed case perspective, we think the number of total active cases provides a better look into what is happening. This measure takes total confirmed cases and subtracts deaths and recoveries. This gives the total amount of people who have the potential to spread the virus further.

According to Worldometer, which aggregates statistics from health agencies across the world, total active cases peaked about a week ago at 58,747 and have since been declining. Even with all the new cases we are seeing in South Korea, Italy and Iran (where data is suspect). There have been 30,597 cases with an outcome (2,699 deaths and 27,898 recovered). In other words, the total active cases now stand at 49,923, a drop of 15% from the peak on February 17th.

One death is too many, but to put that number into a little bit of perspective, according to the World Health Organization, in the United States alone for the 2019-2020 season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths. Imagine if everyone with an internet connection followed the spread of this annual flu, case by case, hour by hour.

It’s true that the death rate from Coronavirus appears to be around 2% in China, which is much higher than the death rate from the normal flu, but like the flu increases with age. However, outside of China the death rate is far less than inside China, roughly 1%. And, there is already a drug that will combat COVID-19 moving toward first phase clinical trials. It took three months for this to happen in 2020, versus 20 months for SARS back in 2002/03 – a testament to advances in drug technology.

Mudassir Ali
- Mar 03, 2020 05:20 PM


It’s been around since December and even if China aren’t being honest about their figures it’s still not anywhere near pandemic, as we’re led to believe. The amount of people infected compared to the population of the planet is nothing. At this stage more people are diagnosed with the normal Influenza.

What’s happened here is there is a new strain of the ‘flu. This happens now and again. In 1918 we had H1N1, then called Spanish ‘flu. Then we had a world population of about 1.9 billion and over 500 million were infected. That’s a lot and then you would be worried. There’s no definite number on the deaths but it ranges between 50–100 million.

H1N1 appeared again in 2009, again the numbers were not enough to cause much of a problem.

Really, wash your hands, sneeze into tissues and bin, all the normal practices is all the advice being offered. Regualar ‘flu will still affect and kill more, but it’s no more a global worry as it’s now normal and there’s a vaccine.

Mudassir Ali
- Mar 03, 2020 05:20 PM

Yes, in the sense that eventually everyone’s going to get it. Best to be prepared. According to the latest statistics the chance of it killing you goes up with age, so in my bracket the odds are 1 in 10. Being as I’m not in perfect health the odds are probably around 1 in 5. A bit of scribbling and I’d estimate deaths in the USA alone will be in the millions. With the Orange Baboon insisting it’s a Democratic plot and with ineffective national preparedness those figures may double or triple. As for ‘serious’ in addition to all the deaths it could possibly destroy the world economies so wars will be inevitable. This is the price we pay for the convenience of air travel and ships loaded with thousands of passengers.

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