What would the theoretical outcome of a war between the USA and Iran be?
Thanks for the A2A.
But I fear I really can’t answer because I don’t think it will, or even can, happen. What for? The US is winning now using nothing more than sanctions and the occasional small strike. If they give us any real trouble we can bomb Kharg Island flat— Iran ships about 90% of its export oil through Kharg— and mine their harbor at Bandar-e Abbas so most of the Navy can’t move, and attrit their Air Force as often as they dare to go feet wet, and flatten their nuke mountain, and just let them stew in their own juice.
See, the thing is, there isn’t anything the US wants from Iran that is actually in Iran, except the nukes. What the US wants from Iran is to stay within their borders and quit trying to become a regionally dominant player. They can do that voluntarily, or they can have whatever they stick across the border cut off by force, but that’s all we really care about. If they want to chant “Death to America” and burn US flags in the street, why should we care? So long as they do this in Iran, have at you; no worries.
But I will say this: have you ever looked at a topo map of Iran? Iran would be a very bad place to war. Lots of mountains, there’d be an ambush every 30 meters. If the US tried to war there it would be very painful and expensive. Not as painful and expensive as it would be for Iran— nobody ever wins a war; the best you can hope for is to lose less than your enemy— but very bad nonetheless. So much so, nukes look attractive. It would be the exact same calculation as was made about the potential Japanese invasion at the end of War II. We’d take a lot of casualties if we have to go.
So let’s don’t.
Day 1
The US using whatever happens to be in the vicinity destroy known Iran C4i facilities, along with any air or GBAD assets that try to intervene
Day2
The US begins destroying Iranian Transport Infrastructure, those “impassible mountains” the FanBois wont shut about, the US blocks the passes, repeating the Air/GBAD patrols as necessary
Day 3
The US begins destroying isolated Iranian Army / RevGuard forces, the actual soldiers have probably ran and hid by now, but their barracks, motor pools, work shops, ammo and fuel dumps ect are still there.
Day 4
The US begins destroying the Iranian Military Industrial Complex. All those famous highly advanced missile and air craft and tank factories the FanBois witter on about, now rubble.
Day 5–7
Mopping up, anything still emits get hit, a bit more bombing to prove the point.
Perhaps you are all too young to remember what happened when Sadam promised to throw the Americans back in the sea? Twice.