Will China collapse in 2018?

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Will China collapse in 2018?

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Mudassir Ali 2 months 1 Answer 56 views 0

Answer ( 1 )

  1. China likely won’t collapse in 2018. It will eventually, but we don’t have any way of knowing when. In addition to that, it won’t look like a collapse in historic terms.

    In China, the communist party has all power. They can micromanage peoples’ lives as much as they wish. As long as they don’t abuse that power, the people will support them. As we know of communist powers of history, all it takes is a few terrible people to grab power to ruin the system. Chances are it won’t be a violent change, but rather a sudden economic downturn as the government is converted into some other system.

    To investors: you can’t judge an entire country by its economic data
    There are infinitely more factors in play when you’re talking about a country, saying “the growth rate of >6% is projected to continue” is meaningless. They’ve managed a high growth rate through ridiculously high debt. The closest comparison would be a business that just keeps taking out loans to fund its growth and never growing quite enough to actually pay them down.

    China is poised to suffer a huge economic losses in the near future. China has a huge debt problem, one that is now almost triple its GDP. Add to that, the current economic growth rate is nowhere near sustainable. The economy will slow significantly as people age-out of the workforce and may actually grind to a halt (0% growth). To make matters worse, due to birthing policies the people that die will not necessarily be replaced. Thanks to China’s one-child policy, the population will decline and the damage will be significantly worse than in the west. They’ve recently implemented a 2-child policy but it’s not having the effect they hoped (which as the west knows, birthrate goes down with technological advancement).

    And that doesn’t bother to mention corruption or the extreme lengths they will have to go to now that they’ve so heavily polluted their environment. Most rivers in China are too toxic to swim in and they’re losing arable land.

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