Will this 21-day lockdown be extended?

Mudassir Ali
Apr 08, 2020 01:59 PM 0 Answers
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Will this 21-day lockdown be extended?

Mudassir Ali
- Apr 08, 2020 02:00 PM

Originally Answered: Should India’s lockdown be extended beyond 21 days?

If need be, absolutely!

3 weeks might seem like a long period. And I know it is. I have been counting down every day (Day 3 of 21 done, YAY!).

But to truly contain something as contagious as the COVID-19 atrocity, it just might not suffice. And we have empirical evidence to support this hypothesis.

The lockdown in Wuhan[1], the epicenter of this pandemic started on 23rd Jan and were lifted just now — China to lift lockdown on Wuhan, ground zero of coronavirus pandemic. The total duration of the lockdown was 2 months.

In Italy, the nationwide lockdown started on 9th Mar[2] and was originally planned till 25th of Mar. It has now been extended till Apr 3 — Italy tops 9,000 coronavirus deaths, overtakes China in cases.

And will likely be extended further.

Franco Locatelli, head of the council advising the government on health matters, said the existing restrictions on movement were likely to be extended beyond the hoped-for end date of April 3:

“If I had to decide using today’s data, I believe it is inevitable these measures will be prolonged.”

UK is even considering an unimaginable 6-month lockdown — UK may see elements of a coronavirus lockdown for six months, deputy CMO says

The virus has an incubation period of about 10–14 days. That is why we are seeing a surge in cases in India now because it has been about 2 weeks since major international travel restrictions came into effect.

Luckily, we are only on Stage 2 of the pandemic, but with high chances of moving to Stage 3 (Community Transmission). If that happens, we can expect cases in India to double on a daily basis.

We neither have the medical infrastructure necessary to test and treat such cases, nor the financial luxury of financing our 80%+ informal economy during such times of distress.

It is unlikely that we will be able to curb the spread of the disease by Apr-mid as:

Millions of people live in slums and crowded suburbs, which have luckily been untouched as of yet
A good amount of imbeciles are still flouting quarantine norms
We are still testing very few cases compared to US or Italy or S. Korea — With Just 18 Tests Per Million of Population, Why India’s Low Testing Rate For Coronavirus is Worrying — so the reported numbers are very likely far lower than actuals

If need be, the government should absolutely extend the lockdown to ensure that this fucking virus is contained once and for all instead of risking a resurgence due to hastened relaxing of the restrictions. Better safe than sorry!

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